The key investment themes of 2026 are already visible on the horizon, having been formed mainly in the current year. In this article, I want to talk about three main trends that, in my opinion, will determine the dynamics of the markets next year. These are: (1) capital investments in the AI infrastructure, (2) the transition to a policy of monetary easing, and (3) the weakening US dollar. Each of these trends opens up a number of interesting opportunities and provides hints on where to look for growth potential and what might be worth avoiding.

1. AI and digital infrastructure: the upside in hardware and nearby

Artificial intelligence remains the main investment theme in the world, promising productivity growth for the entire economy, which is critically important for developed countries with high debt levels. Historically, investments in this sector have focused on software, but in recent years, the importance of data centers, chips, and memory systems has increased dramatically. As AI penetrates many spheres and software becomes more complex, the amount of computing grows like an avalanche. Infrastructural limitations have already begun to manifest themselves, threatening to slow down the further progress of the entire industry.

According to Goldman Sachs, the occupancy rate of American data centers this year may approach 95 per cent, and next year it may reach 97 per cent. Such high levels can threaten stability and security. Experts also talk more about the impending shortage of energy and water for cooling equipment.

As a result, there is a huge demand for AI hardware. The largest IT companies have begun large-scale investments in the construction of data centers and in strengthening all related infrastructure. According to BlackRock, the capex of the five largest U.S. hyperscalers has more than doubled over the past three years and could reach about USD 400 billion by the end of 2025. These costs are expected to grow over the next three years and stabilize at about USD 600 billion per year by 2028. According to various estimates, almost all of the US GDP growth this year was provided by the AI sector, and this trend is likely to continue in 2026.

Thus, the entire ecosystem of AI infrastructure—from chips, servers, and accelerators to power grids, data transmission channels, and storage systems—will become a key consumer of high-caliber investments in 2026. But the expenses of some are the incomes of others. Suppliers and developers of these solutions will face exponentially increasing demand, which will further lead to demand growth across all associated value chains. On the software side, there will be a high demand for solutions to optimize and accelerate the operation of complex AI systems.

All the bottlenecks in this sector are opportunities for innovative startups and R&D departments of large corporations.

2. The trend towards lower rates and monetary stimulus

Since December 1, the Fed has completely stopped the QT program. On December 10, the regulator lowered the policy rate by 25 bp, which was the third cut in the year. From a maximal level of 5.5 per cent recorded in September 2024, the rate has already been reduced by 175 bps. This cut was an expected event, generally reflected in the asset prices.

However, the launch of a new QE program of USD 40 billion per month was quite surprising. The new QE starts just 12 days after the termination of QT—in the absence of serious stress in the money market and against the backdrop of increased inflation, which stubbornly remains about 40% above the target level of 2.0 per cent.

This decision can be interpreted as a signal that the Fed is ready for a formally unlimited release of liquidity “on demand.” This can also be seen as evidence of a partial loss of the regulator’s independence, which is now likely to act in accordance with the administration’s requests. Let’s recall that Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that his goal is a policy rate below 1.0 per cent.

It is expected that the Fed’s new head, who will soon be appointed, will make this request a reality. Thus, next year we should see an increase in monetary stimulus: rates will continue to decrease, and the QE program is likely to be expanded. For comparison, at the peak of the pandemic stimulus, up to USD 800 billion was poured into the economy every month, and the financial system remained stable. Therefore, the current $40 billion so far looks like a rounding error.

This means an influx of new liquidity into the markets. In addition, low interest rates will force large amounts of capital to withdraw from fixed-income instruments such as money market funds, where about USD 8.0 trillion has accumulated. At the same time, inflationary pressure will remain elevated.

In such an environment, bonds may be under attack, especially long-term ones, as calculating inflation and interest rates over a horizon of 10 years or more will become an extremely difficult task.

Stocks, especially risky ones, are likely to benefit. Perhaps this partly explains the impressive results of technology companies—the market is already anticipating new waves of liquidity. We should also expect an activation of the lukewarm IPO markets: there are many strong candidates in the economy who are ready to enter public markets.

3. The weakening US dollar

The dollar downtrend reflects a fundamental shift after a long strengthening period. This trend is caused by differences in the monetary policies of the Fed and other central banks, political uncertainty (tariffs, government shutdown, the confrontation with China), and the large budget deficit in the US. As a result, the DXY index lost almost 10% in 2025.

The weakening dollar makes assets denominated in the US currency less attractive and stimulates higher prices for commodities and physical assets, as well as for assets in emerging markets and some foreign currencies (for example, Scandinavian ones). This trend favors US exports and the economies of developing countries, but at the same time may indicate structural problems in the US, which will put additional pressure on debt markets.

Investors generally expect a further weakening of the dollar as interest rates decrease and QE expands, which may be especially necessary for the current administration to maintain strong economic momentum ahead of congressional elections in November 2026. At the same time, other major central banks are likely to act less aggressively, as their rate-cutting cycles are nearing completion, while the Fed has significant room to cut further.

Correctly determining the dollar trajectory is extremely important for investors, given its central role in the global financial system. The weak dollar will increase the revenue of multinational US companies by revaluing their foreign earnings, as well as increase the attractiveness of international markets, adding to investors’ returns from the strengthening of foreign currencies. In addition to exporters and multinationals, American producers of commodities, as well as foreign stocks and bonds, can become beneficiaries.

Of course, every investment decision will require additional in-depth analysis, but in conclusion, it is safe to say that the investment landscape of 2026, formed on such a foundation, will direct capital not just to where there is “more”, but above all to where it is “smarter”—to innovative infrastructure and related sectors, to assets that can benefit from new liquidity, and to markets that are beneficiaries of the shift in global financial flows.