Post-festive slowdown, compounded by elevated channel inventories, a depreciating rupee and weakening mass-market affordability following price hikes driven by memory cost pressures, have led to a seven per cent year-on-year (YoY) fall in smartphone shipments in Q42025. India’s smartphone shipments stood at 34.5 million units in 4Q25, said an Omdia report.

“Rising memory prices, combined with a depreciating rupee, forced vendors to recalibrate pricing across both new and carry-over models. Entering the post-festive quarter with elevated inventories, channels remained cautious on fresh stocking. As affordability weakened, sell-out momentum softened further from November onwards, reinforcing Q4’s role as an inventory digestion quarter,” Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia.

Vivo retained its leadership position in the quarter with 7.9 million units and a 23 per cent market share, maintaining its pole position for both 4Q and full-year 2025. Samsung followed in second place with 4.9 million units and a 14 per cent share. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) overtook Xiaomi to secure third place with 4.6 million units and a 13 per cent share, while Xiaomi and Apple shipped 4.2 million and 3.9 million units, respectively.

For the full year 2025, India’s smartphone market shipped 154.2 million units, marking a modest one per cent annual decline. While overall volumes remained relatively stable, the market continued to show clear signs of maturation.

Performance tilted toward value-driven strategies, as brands with disciplined portfolio management, strong offline execution and tighter inventory control outperformed volume-led approaches. This shift played out against a backdrop of rising input costs, cautious consumer spending and elongated replacement cycles.

“In 4Q25, several brands quietly reset MOPs – particularly in LPDDR4-heavy, price-elastic segments – to pass through higher component costs,” added Chaurasia.

“Vivo and OPPO remained the only brands to deliver double-digit year-on-year growth, underlining the strength of their retail-first execution in Q4,” added Chaurasia.

Vivo’s Q4 performance was driven by strong volumes from the Y31 5G, Y19s 5G, T4X 5G and V60e, supported by deep offline penetration and a decentralised, agent-led operating model that enables faster state-level execution. OPPO, meanwhile, sustained momentum through a balanced A- and K-series strategy, with the A-series driving scale and an increasing share of K-series volumes shifting into mainline retail.

Beyond Vivo and OPPO, most leading brands faced pressure in 4Q25 amid cautious channels, pricing resets and weaker mass-market demand. Samsung’s volumes softened despite a continued value-led approach through selective upgrade and cashback programs around the Fold 7 and S25 FE. Xiaomi also saw shipments decline, despite avoiding aggressive portfolio-wide price hikes, with volumes anchored by entry models such as the Redmi 14C 5G and POCO C75.

Apple’s performance remained broadly flat with strong demand for the iPhone 17 base model, as consumers deferred purchase in anticipation of demand-generation offers on the iPhone 15 and 16 from January onwards. Realme also faced volume pressure following price adjustments, though models such as the 15X, C71 and C73 provided some stability. Among challengers, OnePlus returned to growth after rebuilding ties with mainline retail, supported by strong offline response to the OnePlus 15 series. Motorola and Nothing continued their selective offline expansion, focusing on high-traffic stores with targeted promoter deployment, the report added.

India’s smartphone market is expected to decline mid-single-digit in 2026, as higher prices and limited incremental value delay upgrades. Memory prices are expected to surge 40-50per cent in Q4 2025 and further increases of 40-50 per cent are expected in Q1 2026 and around 20 per cent in Q2 2026, according to Counterpoint Research. The growing phenomena has caused a ripple effect on DRAM prices: its costs are up 18–25 per cent already, with more hikes expected in early 2026. This has led many OEMs to increase prices of budget laptops and mobile phones by 10-15 per cent. OEMs are also exploring to reduce base RAM/configurations, or delay launches, especially in mid‑ to high‑end segments.

While seasonality and potential policy support should stabilize demand in the second half, the market will increasingly be shaped by cost discipline and channel execution rather than headline innovation.

“Entry-level–heavy Chinese OEMs are expected to pivot toward value growth by targeting the INR 25,000–60,000 ‘flagship killer’ segment, where margin headroom offers better protection against rising memory costs, while the INR 60,000+ segment will remain structurally led by Apple, Samsung and Vivo. With memory inflation constraining hardware-led differentiation, brands will increasingly rely on channel-led levers such as service and ecosystem bundling, deeper financing, trade-ins and phased launches aligned with component availability,” explained Chaurasia.

As consumer demand remains cautious, retail execution – including promoter strength, inventory support and localized sell-through programs – will be critical to sustaining market stability through the year.