India’s E-Commerce Market to Hit USD 345 Bn by 2030: Infisum Report

India’s e-commerce market is projected to nearly triple from USD 125 billion in 2024 to USD 345 billion by 2030, according to a new report titled “Smart Growth in a Fast Market” by research consultancy Infisum, supported by public policy think-tank Empower India.

The report benchmarks players including Amazon Now, Flipkart, Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, JioMart, Tata Neu, and Meesho. Blinkit leads India’s quick-commerce landscape with 44% market share and 900 million orders processed in FY26, followed by Zepto at 25% and Swiggy Instamart at 20%. Amazon Now differentiates itself through no convenience, handling, rain, or surge fees, along with Prime benefits, while Flipkart Minutes faces pressure to build consumer confidence amid inconsistent service quality.

India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% through 2030, accounting for 10-12% of retail spending, contributing 2.5% to GDP, and serving 420-440 million online shoppers by the end of the decade. Traditional B2C e-commerce is expected to remain the largest segment, at nearly two-thirds of total e-retail GMV.

Quick commerce is identified as the fastest-growing segment, valued at an estimated USD 65-70 billion by 2030 and expected to contribute 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years. The country’s dark store network is projected to grow from 2,525 facilities in 2025 to approximately 7,500 by 2030, with the sector shifting from aggressive customer acquisition toward sustainable unit economics.

AI and machine learning are projected to improve retail productivity by 35-37% by 2030, driven by conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants, virtual try-ons, and personalised recommendations.

Gen Z already accounts for nearly one-third of online shoppers and is expected to become India’s largest digital spending cohort by 2030. Tier II and Tier III cities now originate 66% of new D2C orders, and nearly 150 million new online shoppers are expected to join India’s digital economy by 2030.

“Quick commerce is permanent infrastructure, not a trend,” said Dr. Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Fellow, NITI Aayog. “Valued at USD 65-70 billion by 2030, it will drive 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth. Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes are positioned to be preferred players.”

The report cautions that rising fraud risks, product returns, evolving regulatory requirements, and profitability pressures remain challenges, though it notes these are outweighed by opportunities across quick commerce, D2C brands, social commerce, AI-driven retail, and cross-border exports.